Estimation of runoff and hydrological drought in the Jinsha River Basin based on CMIP6

被引：0
|
作者：
Zhang D. [1 ]
Liang H. [2 ]
He X. [1 ]
Shi Y. [3 ]
机构：
[1] Changjiang Survey, Planning, Design and Research Co., Ltd., Wuhan
[2] College of Water Resource & Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu
[3] River Basin Hub Administration Center, China Three Gorges Corporation, Yichang
来源：
Water Resources Protection | 2023年 / 39卷 / 06期
关键词：
climate change; CMIP6; hydrological drought; runoff; the Jinsha River Basin;
D O I：
10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2023.06.008
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
In response to the frequent occurrence of water and drought disasters in the Jinsha River Basin in recent years, which pose a serious threat to water and energy security, 11 global climate models (GCMs) based on CMIP6 were coupled with the VIC hydrological model to estimate the trend of runoff changes in the Jinsha River Basin from 2030 to 2099. The standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to explore the evolution trend of future hydrological drought in the basin. The results show that the spacial downscaling effect of GCMs in historical period (1966-2014) and the runoff simulation effect of the VIC model are both good, providing reliable runoff and hydrological drought estimate data. The future runoff of the Jinsha River Basin shows a significant increasing trend, with Xiaodeshi Station having the fastest growth rate, followed by Pingshan Station, and Shigu Station having the slowest. The trend rate of SSP5-8.5 scenario is greater than that of SSP2-4.5 scenario. The Jinsha River Basin will show a trend of wetting in the future, with severe hydrological drought in the near future (2030-2064) and weakening in the far future (2065-2099). From a spatial perspective, the drought frequency, duration, and intensity of Shigu and Pingshan stations on the main stream of the Jinsha River are higher than those of Xiaodeshi stations on the tributary of the Yalong River. © 2023, Editorial Board of Water Resources Protection. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：53 / 62
页数：9
相关论文
共 40 条
  • [1] JIANG Dabang, WANG Na, Water cycle changes: interpretation of IPCC AR6 [J], Climate Change Research, 17, 6, pp. 699-704, (2021)
  • [2] XIONG J H, GUO S L, ABHISHE K, Et al., Global evaluation of the " dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter" paradigm from a terrestrial water storage change perspective [J], Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, pp. 6457-6476, (2022)
  • [3] JIAO Y, YUAN X, More severe hydrological drought events emerge at different warming levels over the Wudinghe Watershed in northern China, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 1, pp. 621-635, (2019)
  • [4] SU F G, PRITCHARD H D, YAO T D, Et al., Contrasting fate of western third pole's water resources under 21st century climate change, Earths Future, 10, 9, (2022)
  • [5] LI Y S, LU H, YANG K, Et al., Meteorological and hydrological droughts in Mekong River Basin and surrounding areas under climate change [J], Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 36, 6, (2021)
  • [6] XIA Jun, CHEN Jin, SHE Dunxian, Et al., Impacts and countermeasures of extreme drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 [J], Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 53, 10, pp. 1143-1153, (2022)
  • [7] WU Guiyang, CHEN Jie, CHEN Qihui, Et al., Spatiotemporal variation of hydro-meteorological drought in Jinsha River Basin in recent 50 years [J], Yangtze River, 50, 11, (2019)
  • [8] SHEN Jiaju, YANG Hanbo, LIU Zhiwu, Et al., Sensitivity analysis of annual runoff to annual variation of meteorological elements in upper reaches of the Yangtze River [J], Water Resources Protection, 39, 1, pp. 119-126, (2023)
  • [9] QIN Pengcheng, LIU Min, DU Liangmin, Et al., Climate change impacts on runoff in the upper Yangtze River Basin [J], Climate Change Research, 15, 4, (2019)
  • [10] LIANG H X, ZHANG D, WANG W S, Et al., Quantifying future water and energy security in the source area of the western route of China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project within the context of climatic and societal changes [J], Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 47, (2023)
1234