Risk of cascade reservoirs collapse based on Bayesian network

被引：0
|
作者：
Li P. [1 ]
Huang Y. [1 ]
Li B. [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Civil Engineering and Water Resources, Tsinghua University, Beijing
来源：
Shuikexue Jinzhan/Advances in Water Science | 2018年 / 29卷 / 05期
关键词：
Bayesian network; Embankment dam; Flood; Monte Carlo simulation; Probability of dam overtopping; Reservoirs collapse;
D O I：
10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.05.008
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
This paper evaluated the risk of reservoirs collapse caused by nature-flood-based dam overtopping using a Bayesian network. Probabilities of single and cascade reservoirs collapse were calculated for reservoirs in Sichuan Province. The analysis demonstrates that Bayesian network is intuitive and user-friendly to investigate the risk of reservoirs collapse under multiple risk sources. A same conditional dam overtopping probability magnitude of 10 -6 is derived, indicating a low risk of single reservoir dam overtopping. However, the conditional probability of dam overtopping is over 0.8 when the water storage level is higher than normal, meaning there is a high probability of dam overtopping under this condition. © 2018, Editorial Board of Advances in Water Science. All right reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：677 / 684
页数：7
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