Chapter 9: Uncertainty, value of information and greenhouse gas emissions

Formulation of sensible policies for dealing with global warming is greatly complicated by some fundamental scientific uncertainties that are unlikely to be fully resolved in the near future. This poses an awkward policy dilemma: by the time that reliable answers are forthcoming, the damage inflicted will be greatly increased, if the pessimists turn out to be right. On the other hand, enacting a drastic program may impose economic costs and social disruption, especially on poorer regions, that would be clearly excessive if the problem turns out to be less severe than many currently anticipate.