Quantitative analysis of integrity failures in subsea oil wells using a Markovian model

Well-integrity management is a key activity to prevent hydrocarbon leakages during the oilwell life cycle. Accordingly, qualitative techniques associated with the monitoring, testing, and checking of well integrity are widespread in the industry. However, there is still space to advance in terms of quantitative approaches that support the decision making regarding what action to perform when a failure occurs and, additionally, the resource planning without overlooking the risks. In line with this, we propose a Markovian model that allows computing the probability of uncontrolled hydrocarbon releases into the environment. This paper includes a case study demonstrating the model application and the impact of considering successful component tests and evidence of failures. Copyright © 2020 Society of Petroleum Engineers.