Evaluating and forecasting rear⁃end collision risk of long longitudinal gradient roadway via traffic conflict

被引：0
|
作者：
Pan H.-Y. [1 ]
Wang Y.-G. [1 ]
Li D.-L. [1 ]
Chen J.-X. [1 ]
Song J. [1 ]
Yang Y.-Q. [2 ]
机构：
[1] College of Transportation Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an
[2] School of Traffic and Transportation, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin
来源：
Jilin Daxue Xuebao (Gongxueban)/Journal of Jilin University (Engineering and Technology Edition) | 2023年 / 53卷 / 05期
关键词：
long longitudinal gradient roadway; ordered Logistic regression; rear-end collision risk; traffic conflict techniques; traffic engineering; zero-inflated negative binomial regression;
D O I：
10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20210912
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The vehicle trajectory and traffic flow data of the long longitudinal gradient roadway are collected through aerial photography by UAV，radar speed measurement and manual field survey. Based on the traffic conflict technology，the Time to Collision and the probability of rear-end collision caused by the conflict are calculated，and the loss of crash kinetic energy based on the law of conservation of kinetic energy is given for the rear-end collision on the long longitudinal gradient roadway，which are used to quantify the severity of vehicle rear-end conflict and collision consequences. The index of rear-end risk index is constructed to evaluate the degree of rear-end risk on long longitudinal gradient roadway. The zero-inflated negative binomial regression（ZINB） and ordered logistic regression were used to predict the frequency of rear-end conflicts and the risk level of rear-end，and analyze the influence of traffic flow characteristics indicators on them. The results showed that：the frequency of conflicts in uphill and downhill directions were well predicted with R2 of 0.556 and 0.482，respectively；the risk level of rear-end collisions in uphill and downhill directions were well predicted with R2 of 0.643 and 0.632，respectively；the effects of vehicle speed，acceleration，traffic volume and vehicle composition on the number of conflicts and the risk level of rear-end collisions were different. © 2023 Editorial Board of Jilin University. All rights reserved.
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页码：1355 / 1363
页数：8
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