Geopolitical analysis of northern Myanmar based on ethnography and complex social network

Geopolitics is increasingly a focus in ethnography and social networks research, with an urgent need for China to address international criticism regarding the persistent conflicts of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in northern Myanmar. These critiques suggest that EAOs maintain "killed but not extinguished" and conflict persistence, drawing sustenance from a complex cross-border network with China, gaining essential resources like food and shelter. Employing long-term ethnographic tracking and social network analysis, this study examines the intricate relationship between the China-Myanmar cross-border complex social networks and the conflict in northern Myanmar. It starts with the "survival decision-making mechanism," which decomposes the survivability data obtained by EAOs in northern Myanmar into three stages: data acquisition, the extent of complex social network data obtained, and the volume of such data. The survivability data linked to these cross-border networks is empirically tested using the Triple-Hurdle model. The discussion emphasizes ethnography's novel contributions to geopolitical research, showcasing its growing relevance and validity in this domain. The findings reveal that: (1) Under the influence of transaction costs or not, the impact of cross-border complex networks on the conflict's sustainability and the EAOs' resource acquisition is marked by uncertainty, negative and weak positive influences, indicating no direct and inevitable link to the conflict's persistence in northern Myanmar. (2) Transaction costs serve as a mediating factor, with their reduction not directly correlated with the data acquired by EAOs. However, the primary role of cross-border networks is to "expand" cross-border complex social networks, increase transaction frequency, and reduce uncertainty, thereby lowering transaction costs. (3) Control variables like education level, age, and livelihood status have varying impacts on data acquisition stages, showing characteristics of coexistence of positive and negative, significant differences in levels, etc. This study's integration of ethnography with complex network analysis provides a comprehensive geopolitical analysis, enriching the ethnographic geopolitical narrative of the continuous conflict in northern Myanmar. © 2024 Science Press. All rights reserved.