A Weighted Fuzzy CREAM Model for Human Reliability Analysis in Shield Tunneling

被引：0
|
作者：
Wang N. [1 ,2 ]
Du X. [1 ]
Zhang M. [1 ]
Xu C. [1 ]
Lu X. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing
[2] Key Laboratory of Road and Railway Engineering Safety Control of Ministry of Education, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang
来源：
Tianjin Daxue Xuebao (Ziran Kexue yu Gongcheng Jishu Ban)/Journal of Tianjin University Science and Technology | 2019年 / 52卷 / 02期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
Construction risk; CREAM; Human reliability analysis(HRA); Shield tunneling;
D O I：
10.11784/tdxbz201803014
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
To overcome the difficulties of human reliability analysis in risk assessment for shield tunneling, this paper proposes a weighted fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)model. First, the reasonable weight of common performance conditions(CPCs)is obtained by multiple correlation analysis and evidence theory. Second, the specification evaluation rules for CPCs are established based on the current standard, and the membership function for each level of CPCs is obtained by statistical method. On this basis, a continuum technique for the discrete basic diagram for control mode is proposed, and an estimate model, which can be used to determine the human error probability(HEP)in the construction of shield-driven tunnel, is established. Then, the rationality and reliability of the model are verified by four axioms. Results show that the method of introducing the weight into the calculation of the expected CPC effect and the HEP reasoning in the weighted fuzzy CREAM model can better reflect the effect of CPCs on human performance. This model can also provide a reference for quantitative HRA in shield tunneling of subways. © 2019, Editorial Board of Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology). All right reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：200 / 210
页数：10
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