Possible influence of the interdecadal variation of the extratropical southern Indian Ocean SST on East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

Observations indicate that East Asian summer precipitation exhibits significant interdecadal variability, with an alternating reverse phase distribution of rainfall from south to north, which is different from the consistent increase or decrease of precipitation in the whole region. The East Asian summer monsoon mainly affects the spatial pattern of meridional tripole precipitation on the interdecadal timescale. Moreover, the interdecadal sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical southern Indian Ocean is the most significant in the boreal summer. When there is anomalous warming in the extratropical southern Indian Ocean, the Somali cross-equatorial flow weakens and then alternating positive and negative waves propagate to central East Asia. In contrast, the New Guinea cross-equatorial flow experiences interdecadal enhancement with cyclonic circulation anomalies over the Northwest Pacific and anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the Philippines, which leads to a weakening of the South China Sea monsoon trough. On one hand, the cyclonic-anticyclonic coupling over the Philippines and Northwest Pacific results in an anomalous eastward transport of water vapor and reduced water vapor input over southern East Asia. On the other hand, the coupling strengthens the water vapor transport from the mid-latitude Northwest Pacific to central East Asia. These circulation anomalies favor the development of a meridional tripole pattern, i.e. a “negative – positive – negative” pattern of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation anomalies on the interdecadal timescale, which is specifically manifested in the abnormal increase of precipitation in central East Asia and the decrease of precipitation in northern and southern East Asia. © 2023 The Authors