Risk Cause Analysis of Runway Excursion Accidents in the Aircraft Landing Stage through Integrated FTA-BN Method

Runway excursion accidents in the aircraft landing stage are the emphasis in civil aviation safety management. Correctly analyzing and evaluating the influencing factors of runway excursion accidents are the key issues in the current research. In this study, a fault tree model was established to the runway excursion accident risk in the aircraft landing stage based on the fault tree analysis method. Then, the basic events leading to aircraft runway excursions were summarized, and the minimum cut sets and structural importance were calculated. Next, the probability and critical importance of each basic event and the occurrence probability of the top event were analyzed. Subsequently, a Bayesian network (BN) model was constructed through the identified risk factors for runway excursion accidents of aircrafts. The influencing factors of the occurrence probability of each top event and the relative importance of each basic event were investigated, and the critical risks causing runway excursion accidents of aircrafts were revealed. Results show that, 21 basic events in the runway excursion accidents during aircraft landing, among which system fault, ice and snow accumulation on airport runway pavement, and water accumulation on runway pavement are critical events leading to runway excursions. The obtained conclusions provide a decision-making reference for scientifically managing and controlling runway safety events at transport airports. © 2024 School of Science, IHU. All rights reserved.