Evolution model of NIMBY opinion based on public perception and governmental guidance

In view of the NIMBY group events evoked by the public opinion in recent years, this paper studies the evolution of NIMBY opinion from the perspective of public perception for the NIMBY project and governmental guidance to the public opinion. Firstly, through multiple cases comparative analysis, the evolution characteristics of NIMBY opinion are extracted macroscopically, and is described based on the Gompertz model improvement. Subsequently, the cognitive interaction behavior of individuals to the NIMBY project is analyzed from the micro perspective, and the dynamics of individual replication is described based on the evolutionary game modeling. At the same time, considering the government's response to NIMBY opinion through the positive opinion, the cross-entropy model and dynamic equation of the government by the guidance to NIMBY opinion are constructed based on the information entropy theory and the dynamic method. Then, on this basis, the evolution model of NIMBY opinion with the "public-government" is proposed. Finally, the existence and stability of the equilibrium point of the model are discussed and applied to a numerical simulation study, taking evolution of NIMBY opinion for the Maoming PX event in Guangdong as example. The results show that: When the public perception difference for the risk of NIMBY project is small, the government should properly respect the NIMBY opinion, and follow the gradual guidance path to give a timely, actively and concerned response to the NIMBY opinion. Otherwise, the NIMBY opinion will become more and more popular. When the public perception is very different, the government should strengthen the tracking and supervision for the NIMBY opinion, and give a timely, appropriate and objective response to NIMBY opinion. Otherwise, the NIMBY opinion will evolve to a higher steady state. © 2019, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.