Regional Winter Wheat Maturity Date Prediction Based on MODIS and WOFOST Model Data Assimilation

被引：0
|
作者：
Huang J. [1 ,2 ]
Gao X. [1 ]
Huang H. [1 ]
Ma H. [1 ]
Su W. [1 ,2 ]
Zhu D. [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing
[2] Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing for Agri-Hazards, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing
来源：
Nongye Jixie Xuebao/Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery | 2019年 / 50卷 / 09期
关键词：
Data assimilation; Leaf area index; Maturity date prediction; Winter wheat; WOFOST model;
D O I：
10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2019.09.021
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Crop harvest time has an important impact on crop yield and quality. The development and wide application of remote sensing technology provides an effective method for large-area and real-time monitoring of crop growth. However, remote sensing cannot capture changes in its intrinsic mechanism characteristics. Therefore, a framework that assimilated leaf area index (LAI) derived from remote sensing data into crop growth mode was presented to predict the maturity of crops. LAI was used as the coupling variable, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI was used as the remote sensing data source, meteorological data and meteorological forecast data of 2017-2018 were used as weather input of world food studies (WOFOST) crop growth model, May 1st as the predicting date. By means of shuffled complex evolution method developed by the University of Arizona (SCE-UA) algorithm, it was simulated in each pixel in the study area and retrieved the optimal parameters set of this pixel. Then the WOFOST was run by the optimal parameter set to simulate the growth and development of winter wheat and retrieve the maturity prediction. Verified by the observation data of the agrometeorological sites in the study area, it was demonstrated that the method had substantial accuracy in predicting regional anthesis and maturity date with the root mean square error (RMSE) as 2.10 d and 2.48 d. The method provided a reference for the maturity prediction of other crops at a regional scale. © 2019, Chinese Society of Agricultural Machinery. All right reserved.
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页码：186 / 193
页数：7
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