Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

被引：0
|
作者：
Tiantian Tang
Jiaying He
Huihang Sun
Jingjia Luo
机构：
[1] InstituteforClimateandApplicationResearch(ICAR)/KeyLaboratoryofMeteorologicalDisaster,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology
来源：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2025年 / 18卷 / 01期
关键词：
季节预测; 海洋资料同化; 海洋热浪事件; 次表层海温;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P732.4 [海洋天气预报];
学科分类号：
摘要：
2013年底至2016年初,东北太平洋上发生了历史上罕见的极端海洋热浪事件(称为“Blob”事件),形成了从海表延伸至海洋深处300m的强烈且持续的海温暖异常.本文利用南京信息工程大学全球气候预测系统1.0版本(NUISTCFS 1.0),采用两种海洋资料同化方案,探究海洋资料同化差异对这一极端海洋热浪事件季节预测的影响.本文采用的一种同化方案为仅同化海表面温度(Surface sea temperature, SST)的SST-nudging方案,而另一种方案为在前一种方案的基础上加入确定性集合卡尔曼滤波(Deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter, DEn KF),同化更多海洋观测数据的EnKF方案.主要结论为,利用EnKF方案可显著提高对“Blob”期间次表层温度异常预测的准确性,这主要源于En KF方案在预测次表层的水平和垂直热传输方面表现出色.该研究有助于更好地理解海洋热浪事件潜在物理机制及其季节预测水平.
引用
收藏
页码：26 / 33
页数：8
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