Reliability Evaluation of the Railway Four Electric/Electronic Systems Engineering Based on Pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo

Research purposes: Reliability analysis of railway four-electric system has important guiding significance for maintenance management decision. The existing studies usually only vaguely describe the reliability indexes of railway four-electric system equipment, which has high specificity, subjectivity, and uncertainty. In this paper, a novel pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo method-based reliability assessment method of railway four-electric system is proposed to correlate and analyze the regularity indicators. Research conclusions:(1) The reliability index evaluation system of railway four-electric system and railway four-electric equipment is constructed, which provides an evaluation basis for analyzing the reliability of railway four-electric equipment and system. (2) The accuracy of probability distribution using pseudo-Monte Carlo simulation in the case that the index interval is not allowed is enhanced. (3) The pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo algorithm combines the advantages of sequential and non-sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, which can more quickly and accurately find the failure rate and failure time of railway four-electric indexes. (4) By simulating the overall reliability of the four electric systems and analyzing them according to the normal distribution, there is a 99% probability that the overall reliability coefficient of the railway four-electric system is not less than 0.999 784 140. © 2021, Editorial Department of Journal of Railway Engineering Society. All right reserved.