Spatio-temporal Evolution and Synergy of Ecological Civilization and Common Prosperity in the Yellow River Basin based on Bayesian Statistics

In view of the fact that the current comprehensive evaluation of spatiotemporal data fails to fully consider the spatiotemporal interaction information, this paper proposed a spatiotemporal dynamic entropy method, which can simultaneously consider the information entropy of the three dimensions of space, time, and spatiotemporal interaction. This method was employed to synthetically measure the Ecological Civilization Index (EcCI) and Common Prosperity Index (CoPI) at the prefecture-level scale in the Yellow River Basin in China from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, the Bayesian Adaptive Multi-stage Spatio-temporal Evolution Model (BAMSTEM) was applied to finely study the spatiotemporal evolution of the EcCI and CoPI in the Yellow River Basin. The overall spatial pattern and the nonlinear local trends of the EcCI and CoPI in the Yellow River Basin were effectively explored and identified by the BAMSTEM. In order to quantitatively measure the spatiotemporal synergy state of the EcCI and CoPI in the Yellow River Basin, a Bayesian spatiotemporal synergy model was proposed in this paper. This model can effectively quantify the spatiotemporal synergy in four types of change combination scenarios: both increasing, the former increasing vs. the latter decreasing, the former decreasing vs. the latter increasing, and both decreasing. This study found that the process of the spatiotemporal evolution of the EcCI and CoPI in the Yellow River Basin can be divided into three periods: 2000-2007, 2007-2015 and 2015-2020. The overall spatial pattern of the EcCI transformed significantly in the later period, while the CoPI remained basically stable in the three periods. It indicates that the difficulty of the regional coordination of the CoPI is higher than that of the EcCI. In the early and mid- term, the EcCI and CoPI in a few regions showed a downward trend, but in the later stage, the EcCI and CoPI in most regions showed an increasing trend. Compared to EcCI, the increasing trend of the CoPI showed the characteristics of regional polarization in the later stage. In terms of the space-time synergy, the spatial synergy state of the EcCI and CoPI in the Yellow River Basin remained basically stable in the three stages. In terms of spatial and temporal coordination, the spatial coordination state of EcCI and CoPI remained stable in the three stages. The spatial pattern of the EcCI and CoPI reached synergy in the western and eastern regions in the Yellow River Basin, while the relative level of the EcCI in the central regions in the Yellow River Basin was higher than that of the CoPI. In particular, in the late stage (2016- 2020), the growth trend of the EcCI and CoPI in 68 (92%) prefectural- level cities in the Yellow River Basin tended to be consistent, but the regional differences were significant. Therefore, the regional heterogeneity should be fully considered and the coordination among regional cities should be strengthened when the targeted policy system for promoting ecological progress and achieving common prosperity is made. © 2023 Journal of Geo-Information Science