A multi-scalar drought index for global warming: The non-stationary standardized precipitation evaporation index (NSPEI) and spatio-temporal patterns of future drought in China

被引：0
|
作者：
Wen Q. [1 ,2 ]
Sun P. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Zhang Q. [2 ,4 ]
Yao R. [5 ]
机构：
[1] School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, 241000, Anhui
[2] Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing
[3] State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing
[4] Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing
[5] Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment for the Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing
来源：
Dili Xuebao/Acta Geographica Sinica | 2020年 / 75卷 / 07期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金; 国家重点研发计划;
关键词：
Drought monitoring; Global warming; Non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; Spatio-temporal patterns;
D O I：
10.11821/dlxb202007010
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters that have widespread impacts on eco-environment and agriculture. Great efforts have been made on the study of the non-stationarity of hydrometeorological processes, while few reports are available addressing non-stationarity in drought index. Therefore, in this study, we attempted to develop a non-stationary standardized precipitation evaporation index (NSPEI) based on standardized precipitation evaporation index and non-stationary theory with the aim of investigating drought conditions across China in both space and time under different emission scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The results indicated that: (1) Stations with non-stationary hydrometeorological processes are concentrated in northeast China, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the Yangtze River Delta, the Tibetan Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains, and the southern Xinjiang. The NSPEI has the best fitting performance at 88% of the meteorological stations considered in this study. (2) Compared with other drought indices, SPEI tends to overestimate the intensity and duration of droughts during evaluations of the future drought changes; while NSPEI avoids the weakness of SPEI in overestimation of drought intensity. Therefore, NSPEI can better monitor the meteorological droughts in China and describe the future drought changes across the country. (3) Drought monitoring results based on NSPEI indicated an increasing drought trend in northern China, and southern China is dominated by a wetting trend under the scenario of low and high emissions. Extreme dry and wet duration and occurrence frequency showed an increasing trend in China in the future under medium and high emission scenarios. © 2020, Science Press. All right reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：1465 / 1482
页数：17
相关论文
共 43 条
  • [1] Schwalm C R, Williams C A, Schaefer K, Et al., Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, Nature Geoscience, 5, 8, pp. 551-556, (2012)
  • [2] Coumou D, Rahmstorf S., A decade of weather extremes, Nature Climate Change, 2, 7, pp. 491-496, (2012)
  • [3] China Flood and Drought Bulletin 2018, pp. 82-87, (2019)
  • [4] Green P, Salisbury J, Et al., Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth, Science, 289, 5477, pp. 284-288, (2000)
  • [5] Wang Hao, Some thoughts on comprehensive response to China's drought, China Water Resources, 8, pp. 4-6, (2010)
  • [6] Mishra A K, Singh V P., A review of drought concepts, Journal of Hydrology, 391, 1-2, pp. 202-216, (2010)
  • [7] Dai A, Trenberth K E, Karl T R., Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900-1995, Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 17, pp. 3367-3370, (1998)
  • [8] Cai W, Cowan T, Briggs P, Et al., Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, 21, pp. 272-277, (2009)
  • [9] Wang J, Chen F, Jin L, Et al., Characteristics of the dry/wet trend over arid central Asia over the past 100 years, Climate Research, 41, 1, pp. 51-59, (2010)
  • [10] Sheffield J, Wood E F, Roderick M L., Little change in global drought over the past 60 years, Nature, 491, 7424, pp. 435-438, (2012)
12345