RESEARCH ON SHORT-TERM IRRADIANCE PREDICTION BASED ON WRF-SOLAR MODEL AND SCA CORRECTION

被引：0
|
作者：
Shang Y. [1 ]
Guo J. [1 ]
Song Y. [1 ]
Liu W. [1 ]
Ma W. [2 ]
Li W. [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Environmental Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing
[2] National Energy Group Technical and Economic Research Institute, Beijing
来源：
Taiyangneng Xuebao/Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica | 2023年 / 44卷 / 05期
关键词：
irradiance; meteorological factor; stepwise cluster analysis; weather forecast; WRF-Solar;
D O I：
10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-1469
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
In this paper，combined with coupled stepwise clustering analysis（SCA），the real time irradiance of different weather types was simulated and predicted based on the hourly weather factor output from the WRF-Solar model. It is indicated that the combination of the SCA revised coupling model greatly reduces the error of WRF-Solar，and the simulation results are better on sunny days and sunny to cloudy days（cloudy to sunny days）. The improvement is particularly obvious in rainy weather，with the relative error reduced from 64.03% to 24.71% and the root mean square error reduced from 78.02% to 38.02%. It suggests that the coupled model combined with the SCA revision method can reduce the error of WRF-Solar caused by the randomness and mutation of weather，and can simulate the trend of hourly irradiance magnificently. © 2023 Science Press. All rights reserved.
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页码：274 / 279
页数：5
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