The evaluation of vapor cloud explosion risk through consequence analysis approach for an LPG filling terminal in Turkey

The Consequence analysis modeling approach refers to the risk analysis method that quantitatively evaluates theeffect of physical damage to be caused by flammable chemicals in the chemical process industry on the plantequipment, structures in and around the plant, the environment and living things after the loss of integrity scenarios. This study minimizes uncertainties such as release cross-section, flammable gas cloud mass, congestion geometryand DDT (deflagration to detonation transition) assessment, fuel reactivity involved in the traditional approachdiscussed in the literature and presents a conservative systematic procedure. This consequence analysis modellingbased on near-miss LPG dispersion that have happened approximately 15 minutes in July 2017 at an LPG fillingfacility. The damage parameters caused by explosive LPG cloud mass in the defined scenarios were analyzed inALOHA software. The overpressure outputs were transfered to GIS-based Marplot software and were estimateddamage on sensitive locations caused by explosion overpressure through probit functions. The probit equations used in this study for building damage estimations put all buildings in the same category. The differentreinforcement and physical properties of the buildings make it difficult to reach accurate estimates for possiblestructural damage. In addition, this study is a pre-assessment on the dimensions of the explosion risk due to theuncertainties and assumptions contained in the method. At the decision-making stage for the facility investmentplans should make more comprehensive analysis.