Local climate at breeding colonies influences pre-breeding arrival in a long-distance migrant

The annual cycles of long-distance migrant species are synchronized with the local climatic conditions at their breeding areas, as they impact the availability of food resources. A timely arrival of individuals to the breeding grounds is crucial for achieving high fitness. Variation in factors influencing timing, including climate, may thus impact the life history of individuals. We studied between-individual variation in migration timing, in particular how local breeding climate influences arrival time and how early-arriving individuals achieve a timely arrival. We tracked individual Lesser Kestrel (Falco naumanni) with GPS tags across a gradient of latitude (37 degrees-42 degrees N) and longitude (6.5 degrees W-16.5 degrees E). Arrival time was influenced by the breeding latitude, the breeding longitude, and the local temperature, without any apparent influence of sex. The time of arrival at the breeding grounds was 6 days later for every degree increase in latitude and 2 days later for every degree increase in longitude. Lesser Kestrels from southwestern colonies achieve earlier arrival than conspecifics breeding at northeastern colonies, mostly due to earlier departure from their non-breeding grounds. While we found some effects of travel speed and stopover duration on arrival date, the latter was primarily influenced by food abundance and wind conditions en route. The large effect of departure date from West Africa on arrival date, relative to the more moderate influence of stopover duration close to breeding colonies, supports the idea that geographically uneven climate change may negatively affect fitness via ecological mismatches in the breeding area.