Longitudinal PLS-SEM analysis of the performance and participation of students in mathematics

The mathematics performance of Australian high-school students in Year 9 and their participation in mathematics subjects in Year 12 has plummeted in the last 20 years. In this paper, a retrospective cohort study was conducted to understand how non-cognitive variables controlled or explained the correlation between mathematics performance in Year 9 and mathematics participation in Year 12. The sample consisted of a cohort of Australian students (N N = 6653; n = 3115, 46.8% male) who participated in the Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth (LSAY) in 2007 to 2017. Partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was conducted to explore the degree to which one moderating variable and five mediating variables intervened in the relationship between mathematics performance in Year 9 and mathematics participation in Year 12. Mathematics performance in Year 9 predicted mathematics participation in Year 12 (R2 2 = 18.4%). The positive correlation was moderated by gender and mediated by five non-cognitive factors associated with self-related beliefs: mathematics self-concept, self-efficacy, interest, motivation, and anxiety (R2 2 = 28.9%). At any given level of mathematics performance in Year 9, a male student with a higher level of mathematics self-concept, self-efficacy, interest, and motivation, and a lower level of anxiety, was more likely to participate in mathematics subjects in Year 12 than a female student with a lower level of mathematics self-concept, self-efficacy, interest, and motivation, and a higher level of anxiety. These finding have implications for ameliorating the declining levels of mathematics performance and participation.