Assessment, quantification and propagation of uncertainty in seismic life-cycle cost analysis

Seismic life-cycle cost analysis (SLCCA) is a comprehensive tool to estimate the expected lifetime economic losses due to seismic events in terms of present-day value and aids in lifetime investment planning and design decision-making. The state-of-the-art framework for SLCCA incorporates three essential components: seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility curves and damage cost estimates. Due to different sources of uncertainty prevailing in each component, the SLCC estimates may vary substantially. However, most of the existing literature primarily focuses on the expected value of the SLCC, and uncertainties stemming from multiple sources are unaccounted for. To address this drawback, this study proposes a comprehensive approach to quantify and propagate multiple uncertainties and offers a visualization of the shape and nature of SLCC distribution. Furthermore, the application of the framework is demonstrated using a case study example of the reinforced concrete (RC) frame building. Results reveal that the SLCC distribution is multimodal due to multiple uncertainty sources and the expected SLCC values also shift significantly compared to the state-of-the-art approaches, highlighting the criticality of the uncertainty propagation. Lastly, a novel framework is proposed to rank uncertainty sources based on their relative influence that will aid stakeholders in informed decision-making under uncertainty.