Application of reliability models for crash frequency analysis: implications for network-wide safety performance

The present study demonstrated the potential applications of reliability models for crash analysis of a large highway network. Specifically, three major outcomes of reliability models were investigated: temporal distributions of crashes, reliability score, and expected number of crashes, using 20-year data (2001-2020) of crashes recorded on the Saskatchewan highway network. A series of reliability models were developed for crashes by crash severity, vehicle involvement, and highway type. First, the temporal distributions of crashes on each segment were fit to a statistical distribution. Second, the reliability scores were used to rank the high crash risk segments. Third, the mean expected crash frequency was used to develop network-wide safety performance functions for total and fatal crashes in urban and rural highway segments using Poisson-Tweedie (PTw) regression models. The developed PTw models showed that the presence of trucks in the traffic composition has a significant effect on crash frequency, especially for urban highway segments.