The effects of long-term policies on urban resilience: A dynamic assessment framework

With the increasing number of risk events derived from complex interactions among climate, environmental and socioeconomic dimensions of urban systems, it is imperative for cities' local governments to enhance urban resilience to cope with these complex risks. However, due to the inherent complexity and interconnectedness of urban systems, policymakers face challenges in assessing the impact of urban resilience policies and determining the most effective approach. With the constant flow of resources, capital, and information, it can be difficult to identify the most appropriate policy set to optimize urban resilience. Therefore, this paper proposes a multimethod model based on a composite index approach and system dynamics to assess the effects of resilience policies, which integrates the essential components of the environmental, land and natural resources, social and economic sectors in the urban system. In addition, text analysis is used to empirically analyze the policy adoption patterns of local governments of cities. The results indicate that policies related to culture, education, medical and health service can significantly enhance the resilience of the entire urban system, followed by environment policies such as reducing water demand and increasing sewage treatment capacity. Moreover, the synergies or trade-offs of different resilience policies are identified, and the optimal policy sets are listed. Not all policy sets have a synergistic effect on resilience improvement, the policies related to land use and transportation infrastructures might cause a decline in urban resilience, showing the resource conflicts of urban subsystems. The findings provide a reference for local government policymakers and enrich the theory of sustainable development and carrying capacity.