Long-Term Observation of Prognostic Factors and Clinical Outcome of Vernal Keratoconjunctivitis in Childhood

Purpose: Vernal keratoconjunctivitis (VKC) is a refractory ocular allergic disorder that mainly affects boys. Long-term follow-up has been rarely reported for VKC. We investigated the long-term clinical outcome of VKC to identify relevant clinical features of prognostic value based on follow-up for a median of 70 months. Methods: In total, 45 consecutive patients clinically diagnosed with VKC aged 4 to 12 years at onset at the Department of Ophthalmology of Fukuoka University Hospital were included. Patients were treated with immunosuppressive eye drops without simultaneous corticosteroid eye drops, except for the occurrence of exacerbations. Collated variables were gender, age at onset, clinical score of ocular lesions (conjunctival giant papillae, limbal edema and corneal epithelial lesions) at the first visit, and clinical score of atopic dermatitis (AD) at baseline. Cumulative cure rate was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. A binomial logistic predictive model was used to determine the most reliable clinical predictors of VKC outcome. Results: The observation period ranged from 24 to 188 months, with median of 70 months. Among the 45 cases enrolled, all noncured cases (14 cases) observed clinically were complicated by AD. Cumulative cure rate was 74.5% and 84.9% at eight- and ten-year follow-up, respectively. Ten-year cumulative cure rates of cases with and without AD were 50.5% and 100%, respectively, and a significant difference was found between these cumulative cure curves. Binomial regression analysis revealed that AD and gender were significantly related to worse outcome, and this binomial regression model had high sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that th eclinical outcomeof VKC might be predicted by several factors that can beobtained in the early clinical phase. Information on the long-term prognosis of VKC patients might play an important role for precision medicine for VKC in childhood.