Research on China's GDP Growth Forecast Based on Grey Machine Learning Model

Based on Keynesian macroeconomic theory, this paper introduces economic indicators with Chinese characteristics, and constructs a multivariate grey machine learning forecasting model (IGM (1, N, X-1((0)))-IPSO-LSTM) to predict China's GDP growth.Firstly, IGM (1, N) model is constructed by changing the background value construction method of GM (1, N) model and introducing grey action constant A which reflects the change from the grey differential equation to the difference equation. Secondly, due to the low frequency and small amount of GDP data, constructing a two-layer LSTM model to increase the model complexity, so that the data can be fully trained. In addition, this paper uses nonlinear descending function instead of w to construct Improved Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (IPSO), and adds Genetic Algorithm (GA) to IPSO to reduce the risk of particles falling into the local optimal solution. Finally, using IPSO to find the optimal parameters of LSTM model to predict China's GDP growth. By comparing the prediction accuracy of IGM (1, N, X-1((0)))-IPSO-LSTM model with other benchmark models, the prediction result of IGM (1, N, X-1((0)))-IPSO-LSTM model is the best. It is predicted that China's GDP growth rate in 2024 is 5.18% and in 2025 is 5.12%. By analyzing the trend development of China's economic, it is found that the forecast results are consistent with the expected trend of macro economy, which increases the credibility of the forecast results