Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Vegetation and Its Driving Mechanisms on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2020

Revealing the response of vegetation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) to climate change and human activities is crucial for ensuring East Asian ecological security and regulating the global climate. However, the current research rarely explores the time-lag effects of climate on vegetation growth, leading to considerable uncertainty in analyzing the driving mechanisms of vegetation changes. This study identified the main driving factors of vegetation greenness (vegetation index, EVI) changes after investigating the lag effects of climate. By analyzing the trends of interannual variation in vegetation and climate, the study explored the driving mechanisms behind vegetation changes on the QTP from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that temperature and precipitation have significant time-lag effects on vegetation growth. When considering the lag effects, the explanatory power of climate on vegetation changes is significantly enhanced for 29% of the vegetated areas. About 31% of the vegetation on the QTP exhibited significant "greening", primarily in the northern plateau. This greening was attributed not only to improvements in climate-induced hydrothermal conditions but also to the effective implementation of ecological projects, which account for roughly half of the significant greening. Only 2% of the vegetation on the QTP showed significant "browning", sporadically distributed in the southern plateau and the Sanjiangyuan region. In these areas, besides climate-induced drought intensification, approximately 78% of the significant browning was due to unreasonable grassland utilization and intense human activities. The area where precipitation dominates vegetation improvement was larger than the area dominated by temperature, whereas the area where precipitation dominates vegetation degradation is smaller than that where temperature dominates degradation. The implementation of a series of ecological projects has resulted in a much larger area where human activities positively promoted vegetation compared to the area where they negatively inhibited it.