Impact of COVID-19 on temporal trends and health risks of urinary metal concentrations among residents of Guangzhou, China

Long-term biomonitoring of urinary metal ions is an essential tool for the epidemiological assessment of chronic exposure levels, enabling us to track changes in metal exposure over time and better understand its health implications. In this study, we evaluated the temporal trends of urinary metal ions among 1962 residents of Guangzhou, China, from 2018 to 2022. The total metal ion concentrations in the urine of the population did not change significantly between 2018 and 2019. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, urinary total metal ion concentrations began to decline dramatically, reaching their lowest level in 2021. A rebound in concentrations was observed in 2022, which returned to the initial levels observed in 2018. Urine chromium and cadmium concentrations peaked in 2020, while urinary lead levels were the highest in 2021, and urinary nickel concentrations were the highest in 2022. Males consistently displayed higher urinary concentrations of lead and arsenic throughout each year of the study. Furthermore, minors consistently had higher urinary nickel levels than adults, whereas adults consistently had higher urinary cadmium concentrations than minors. Cluster analyses were conducted annually on urinary metal ions to examine the differences in their distribution and to evaluate changes in metal exposure patterns over time. The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the whole population exhibits a high non-carcinogenic risk from arsenic exposure and significant carcinogenic risks associated with exposure to nickel, arsenic, chromium, and cadmium. The next two years were predicted by a gray prediction model, and the results are tested using mean absolute percentage error which demonstrating high accuracy.