Surface Rupture of the 2008 Mw 6.6 Nura Earthquake: Triggered Flexural-Slip Faulting in the Pamir-Tien Shan Collision Zone

This study investigates the intricate relationship between earthquake sources and seismogenic surface ruptures in a complex tectonic setting with active faults in the continental collision zone between the southern Tien Shan and the northern Pamir Mountains in Central Asia. The study focuses on the 2008 Mw 6.6 Nura earthquake along the Pamir Frontal Thrust, where the seismogenic surface rupture occurred unexpectedly within the footwall and 10 km away from the source thrust fault. This discrepancy raises questions about the interactions and potential trigger mechanisms between tectonic structures during earthquake rupture. Using unmanned aerial vehicle photography and field inspection, our investigation integrates detailed fault-zone mapping with tectono-geomorphic observations to unravel potential interactions between subsurface structures and surface-deformation phenomena. Our findings suggest that a combination of slip along deep-seated basement faults and remotely triggered flexural slip within folded Paleogene strata led to surface rupture of overlying Quaternary glacial deposits. Geomorphological and geochronological analyses coupled with systematic displacement measurements furthermore reveal evidence of similar past ruptures within the regional fault system, suggesting a recurrence interval of 1.7 kyr and a Holocene vertical offset rate of 0.4 mm/yr. The analysis of the Nura rupture zone contributes significantly to evaluate linkages between surface and subsurface structures regarding fault-zone behavior and seismic hazard assessments. Importantly, our results highlight the critical role of on-site investigations in regions with poorly defined surface ruptures, where misinterpretation may lead to the underestimation of the impact of seismic events and limitations in assessing earthquake history and strain accumulation.