Predicting Depression Among Chinese Patients with Narcolepsy Type 1: A Machine-Learning Approach

Objective: Depression is a common psychiatric issue among patients with narcolepsy type 1 (NT1). Effective management requires accurate screening and prediction of depression in NT1 patients. This study aims to identify relevant factors for predicting depression in Chinese NT1 patients using machine learning (ML) approaches. Methods: A total of 203 drug-free NT1 patients (aged 5-61), diagnosed based on the ICSD-3 criteria, were consecutively recruited from the Sleep Medicine Center at Peking University People's Hospital between September 2019 and April 2023. Depression, daytime sleepiness, and impulsivity were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale for Children (CES-DC) or the Self-Rating Depression Scale (SDS), the Epworth Sleepiness Scale for adult or children and adolescents (ESS or ESS-CHAD), and the Barratt Impulse Scale (BIS-11). Demographic characteristics and objective sleep parameters were also analyzed. Three ML models- Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM)-were used to predict depression. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The LR model identified hallucinations (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.01-4.90, p = 0.048) and motor impulsivity (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.18, p = 0.015) as predictors of depression. Among the ML models, SVM showed the best performance with an AUC of 0.653, accuracy of 0.659, sensitivity of 0.727, and F1 score of 0.696, reflecting its effectiveness in integrating sleep-related and psychosocial factors. Conclusion: This study highlights the potential of ML models for predicting depression in NT1 patients. The SVM model shows promise in identifying patients at high risk of depression, offering a foundation for developing a data-driven, personalized decision- making tool. Further research should validate these findings in diverse populations and include additional psychological variables to enhance model accuracy.