The Tumor Risk Score (TRS) - next level risk prediction in head and neck tumor surgery

Purpose Head and neck cancer surgery often requires postoperative monitoring in an intensive care unit (ICU) or intermediate care unit (IMC). With a variety of different risk scores, it is incumbent upon the investigator to plan a risk-adapted allocation of resources. Tumor surgery in the head and neck region itself offers a wide range of procedures in terms of resection extent and reconstruction methods, which can be stratified only vaguely by a cross-disciplinary score. Facing a variety of different risk scores we aimed to develop a new Tumor Risk Score (TRS) enabling anterograde preoperative risk evaluation, resource allocation and optimization of cost and outcome measurements in tumor surgery of the head and neck. Methods A collective of 547 patients (2010-2021) with intraoral tumors was studied to develop the TRS by grading the preoperative tumor size and location as well as the invasiveness of the planned surgery by means of statistical modeling. Two postoperative complications were defined: (1) prolonged postoperative stay in IMC/ICU and (2) prolonged total length of stay (LOS). Each parameter was analyzed using TRS and all preoperative patient parameters (age, sex, preoperative hemoglobin, body-mass-index, preexisting medical conditions) using predictive modeling design. Established risk scores (Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), American Society of Anesthesiologists risk classification (ASA), Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI)) and Patient Clinical Complexity Level (PCCL) were used as benchmarks for model performance of the TRS. Results The TRS is significantly correlated with surgery duration (p < 0.001) and LOS (p = 0.001). With every increase in TRS, LOS rises by 9.3% (95%CI 4.7-13.9; p < 0.001) or 1.9 days (95%CI 1.0-2.8; p < 0.001), respectively. For each increase in TRS, the LOS in IMC/ICU wards increases by 0.33 days (95%CI 0.12-0.54; p = 0.002), and the probability of an overall prolonged IMC/ICU stay increased by 32.3% per TRS class (p < 0.001). Exceeding the planned IMC/ICU LOS, overall LOS increased by 7.7 days (95%CI 5.35-10.08; p < 0.001) and increases the likelihood of also exceeding the upper limit LOS by 70.1% (95%CI 1.02-2.85; p = 0.041). In terms of predictive power of a prolonged IMC/ICU stay, the TRS performs better than previously established risk scores such as ASA or CCI (p = 0.031). Conclusion The lack of a standardized needs assessment can lead to both under- and overutilization of the IMC/ICU and therefore increased costs and losses in total revenue. Our index helps to stratify the risk of a prolonged IMC/ICU stay preoperatively and to adjust resource allocation in major head and neck tumor surgery.