Prognostic value of PSMA PET in predicting long-term biochemical control following curative intent treatment for prostate cancer

Introduction: The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic value of Ga-68-labelled prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography (PET) metrics in predicting long-term biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS) following curative intent treatment for prostate cancer. Methods: We completed a prospective study that followed men who had PSMA PET for staging of newly diagnosed prostate cancer between 2015 and 2017 who went on to have curative intent treatment with radiotherapy (RT) or radical prostatectomy (RP). PSMA PET CT imaging was reported and the intraprostatic maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax) was recorded. The primary outcome was BFFS. Statistical analysis included descriptive statistics, Cox proportional hazards (PH) models, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and a regression tree structured method. Results: A total of 183 men were included in the analysis with a median age of 66 years and the majority of patients (55.2%) had ISUP grade 1-3 disease. All patients had PSMA PET staging prior to curative intent treatment with RP (66.1%) or external beam radiotherapy (33.9%). PSMA-avid pelvic nodes were present in 26 patients but were not associated with worse biochemical control. A PSMA SUVmax of the prostate primary greater than the median (>5.6) was associated with a lower BFFS (HR: 4.4, 95% CI 1.42-3.72, P = 0.01). A multivariate Cox model incorporating initial biopsy grade, age and PSMA SUVmax showed that PSMA SUVmax was an independent predictor of BFFS. The RT-structured method identified an optimal threshold of 6.8 for PSMA SUVmax, above which patients with ISUP 1-3 disease had a significantly worse BFFS. Conclusion: PSMA SUVmax is a strong predictor of BFFS in patients with non-metastatic prostate cancer who underwent curative intent treatment. Patients with low-risk disease on biopsy (ISUP 1-3) but high PSMA SUVmax may have biochemical failure risk analogous to higher-risk disease (ISUP 4-5). These findings allow for further risk stratification and prognosis of patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer planned for definitive treatment.