Evaluating the risk and its acceptability of crop yield reduction in Northwest China under the impact of wind hail disasters

The risk of crop yield reduction directly affects the living standards of regional urban and rural residents and the development of national economic sectors. Research on the risk of crop yield reduction due to disasters is an effective way to achieve agricultural disaster risk management. This study takes Northwest China (including Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang) as the study area, utilizes the data of crops (including grain crops, oil-bearing crops, cotton, fiber crops, sugar crops, tobacco, vegetables, and melons) loss (affected area, covered area, and total-crop-failure area) and yield (total sown area, total crop yield, and crops yield per unit area) from 2012 to 2021, and uses the crop yield reduction analysis method, risk assessment method based on crop yield reduction rate, and the improved F-N curve method (F-CYR curve method) to assess and analyze the risk and its acceptability of crop yield reduction caused by wind hail disasters in Northwest China and its provinces. The results show that the crop yields in the northwest region and individual provinces are significantly affected by wind hail disasters, especially in 2014 and 2019, which exhibit the same trend. The average risk of crop yield reduction caused by wind hail disasters in the northwest region is low and mainly belongs to tolerable risk. The average crop yield reduction risks in Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia are at a low level, while those in Qinghai and Xinjiang are at a moderate level. Among them, the crop yield reduction risks of wind hail disasters in Shaanxi mainly belong to acceptable and unacceptable risks; those in Gansu and Ningxia mainly belong to acceptable risks; those in Qinghai mainly belong to unacceptable risks; and those in Xinjiang mainly belong to tolerable risks. Among the risks of crop yield reduction each year, all very-low risks are acceptable, while a larger proportion of low and moderate risks are unacceptable, and all high risks are unacceptable. The research results will provide more information from risk classification for agricultural disaster risk management, and further provide beneficial support for sustainable agricultural development.