Widespread temporal and spatial variability in net ecosystem productivity under climate change

SCIENCE FOR SOCIETY Climate change, due primarily to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, is posing a significant threat to natural and managed ecosystems. Particularly responsive to changing climate is the carbon balance: how much carbon an ecosystem absorbs and sequesters versus how much carbon it releases into the atmosphere. Climate mitigation plans reliant on ecosystems for carbon sequestration thus require accurate information on how climate change will impact their carbon balance. In this study, we built improved predictions showing that under climate change, ecosystem carbon balance is highly variable both in space and through time. Importantly, the impact on Amazon forests is sensitive to the level of warming, with carbon sequestration decreasing under low levels of warming while increasing under higher levels. Better carbon balance predictions will help inform which ecosystems will continue to absorb human emissions of carbon and where to focus climate mitigation efforts.