Modelling driver expectations for safe speeds on freeway curves using Bayesian belief networks

Sharp curves in freeways are known to be unsafe design elements since drivers do not expect them. It is difficult for drivers to estimate the radius of a curve. Therefore, drivers are believed to use other cues to decelerate when approaching a curve. Based on previous successful experiences of driven speeds in curves, drivers are thought to have built expectations of safe speeds given certain cues, minimalising risks. This research employs a Bayesian Belief Network to model driver expectations using measured speeds in 153 curves and data on the characteristics of the curve approaches. This model mimics expectations as the probability of measured speeds given certain cues. Using Bayes theorem, prior beliefs on safe speeds are updated towards a posterior belief when a new cue is observed during curve approach. We refer to this posterior belief as expected safe speed. Drivers are assumed to adjust their operating speed if it does not match their expected safe speed. The model shows that the visible deflection angle has a large influence in setting the expectations of a safe speed for an upcoming curve. In addition, the preceding type of roadway and the number of lanes are both important cues to set a driver's expectations of a safe speed. Speed and warning signs are shown to be interdependent on the road scene and hence have less influence in setting expectations. This research shows that design and safety assessment of freeway curves should be considered aligned with the road scene upstream of the curve.