Carbon metabolism mechanisms and evolution characteristics analysis of the food-water-energy nexus system under blue-green infrastructure changes

Food, water, and energy comprise a complex system (FWE nexus) that generates much carbon emissions during operation. At the same time, urban blue-green infrastructure (BGI) has a critical carbon sequestration function. This paper combines the functions of the FWE nexus and BGI and uses ecological network analysis (ENA) and the Markov model to measure the carbon metabolism (CM) mechanisms and evolutionary characteristics of BGI and FWE nexus (BGI-FWE nexus) complex systems. The results show that Guangzhou has high carbon emissions, and Zhaoqing and Huizhou have hih carbon sequestration. Resident land and industrial and transportation land transfers to different land uses are more likely to produce positive carbon flows, while BGI transfers to other types are more likely to produce negative carbon flows. The study of CM mechanisms reveals a high proportion of competition relationships and a low proportion of mutualism relationships. The ecological utility index (EUI) tends to fall initially and then increase, peaking at 0.84 in 2015-2020, the highest value for the study period. The CM network has less system robustness (SR) and is in an unsustainable state of high redundancy and low efficiency. The mechanism evolution characterization study's findings show a decreased likelihood of remaining original and less stability in the spatial transfer probability matrices of EUI and SR. In this study, we constructed a BGI-FWE nexus research framework based on the different CM functions of BGI and FWE nexus. The research framework contributes to the realization of carbon reduction in the FWE nexus system and is essential for the planning and management of urban BGI.