Suitable climatic area for three species of Phlegmariurus (Lycopodiaceae) in Cuba: potential distribution and priority areas for conservation

Climate change constitutes a threat to biodiversity. The geographical distribution and dimension of the effects of climate change on individuals and ecosystems are uncertain, being the mountainous ecosystems more sensitive to climate In this study, we determined the suitable potential climatic area for Phlegmariurus acerosus, P. taxifolius, and P. reflexus, which inhabit humid and very humid subtropical forests and have some category of threat due to habitat fragmentation and the continuous decrease in populations. We developed climate niche models in the MaxEnt software using occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. We projected the resulting models geographically according to current climatic conditions. The projections showed that the climatic conditions suitable for the species are distributed in the mountains of eastern Cuba. The potential climatic niche has a high probability of presence: 250.66 km(2) for P. acerosus, 393.42 km(2) for P. taxifolius, and 232.40 km(2) for P. reflexus. The protected areas considered a priority for conservation are nine for P. acerosus and P. reflexus, and five for P. taxifolius. Our projections were determined by elevation and seasonal temperature. The priority areas for conservation of the species corresponded to the protected areas present in the Nipe-SaguaBaracoa and Sierra Maestra Mountain ranges, the latter being the most important for the taxa.