Antagonistic effects of growing season and autumn temperatures on the timing of leaf coloration in winter deciduous trees

Autumn phenology remains a relatively neglected aspect in climate change research, which hinders an accurate assessment of the global carbon cycle and its sensitivity to climate change. Leaf coloration, a key indicator of the growing season end, is thought to be triggered mainly by high or low temperature and drought. However, how the control of leaf coloration is split between temperature and drought is not known for many species. Moreover, whether growing season and autumn temperatures interact in influencing the timing of leaf coloration is not clear. Here, we revealed major climate drivers of leaf coloration dates and their interactions using 154 phenological datasets for four winter deciduous tree species at 89 stations, and the corresponding daily mean/minimum air temperature and precipitation data across China's temperate zone from 1981 to 2012. Results show that temperature is more decisive than drought in causing leaf coloration, and the growing season mean temperature plays a more important role than the autumn mean minimum temperature. Higher growing season temperature and lower autumn minimum temperature would induce earlier leaf coloration date. Moreover, the mean temperature over the growing season correlates positively with the autumn minimum temperature. This implies that growing season mean temperature may offset the requirement of autumn minimum temperature in triggering leaf coloration. Our findings deepen the understanding of leaf coloration mechanisms in winter deciduous trees and suggest that leaf life-span control depended on growing season mean temperature and autumn low temperature control and their interaction are major environmental cues. In the context of climate change, whether leaf coloration date advances or is delayed may depend on intensity of the offset effect of growing season temperature on autumn low temperature.