Partial Hepatectomy and Ablation for Survival of Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients: A Bayesian Emulation Analysis

Partial hepatectomy and ablation therapy are two widely used surgical procedures for localized early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. This article aimed to evaluate their relative effectiveness in terms of overall survival. An emulation analysis approach was first developed based on the Bayesian technique. We estimated propensity scores via Bayesian logistic regression and adopted a weighted Bayesian Weibull accelerated failure time (AFT) model incorporating prior information contained in the published literature. With the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data, an emulated target trial with rigorously defined inclusion/exclusion criteria and treatment regimens for early-stage HCC patients over 66 years old was developed. For the main cohort with tumor size less than or equal to 5 cm, a total of 1146 patients were enrolled in the emulated trial, with 301 and 845 in the partial hepatectomy and ablation arms, respectively. The analysis suggested ablation to be significantly associated with inferior overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.35; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.14, 1.60). For the subgroup with tumor size less than or equal to 3 cm, there was no significant difference in overall survival between the two arms (HR = 1.15; 95% CrI: 0.88, 1.52). Overall, the comparative treatment effect of ablation and partial hepatectomy on survival remains inconclusive. This finding may provide further insight into HCC clinical treatment.