A two-center study of a combined nomogram based on mammography and MRI to predict ALN metastasis in breast cancer

Objectives: To develop and validate a predictive method for axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis of breast cancer by using radiomics based on mammography and MRI. Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis of 492 women from center 1 (The affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University) and center 2 (Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital) with primary breast cancer from August 2013 to May 2021 was carried out. The radscore was calculated using the features screened based on preoperative mammography and MRI from the training cohort of Center 1 (n = 231), then tested in the validation cohort (n = 99), an internal test cohort (n = 90) from Center 1, and an external test cohort (n = 72) from Center 2. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen for the clinical and radiological characteristics most associated with ALN metastasis. A combined nomogram was established in combination with radscore that predicted the clinicopathological and radiological characteristics. Calibration curves were used to test the effectiveness of the combined nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of the combined nomogram and then compare with the clinical and radiomic models. The decision curve analysis (DCA) value was used to evaluate the combined nomogram for clinical applications. Results: The constructed combined nomogram incorporating the radscore and MRI-reported ALN metastasis status exhibited good calibration and outperformed the radiomics signatures in predicting ALN metastasis (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.886 vs. 0.846 in the training cohort; 0.826 vs. 0.762 in the validation cohort; 0.925 vs. 0.899 in the internal test cohort; and 0.902 vs. 0.793 in the external test cohort). The combination nomogram achieved a higher AUC in the training cohort (0.886 vs. 0.786) and the internal test cohort (0.925 vs. 0.780) and similar AUCs in the validation (0.826 vs. 0.811) and external test (0.902 vs. 0.837) cohorts than the clinical model. Conclusion: A combined nomogram based on mammography and MRI can be used for preoperative prediction of ALN metastasis in primary breast cancer.