Climate projections of the Adriatic Sea: role of river release

被引:9
|
作者
Verri, Giorgia [1 ]
Furnari, Luca [2 ]
Gunduz, Murat [1 ,3 ]
Senatore, Alfonso [2 ]
da Costa, Vladimir Santos [1 ]
De Lorenzis, Alessandro [1 ]
Fedele, Giusy [1 ]
Manco, Ilenia [1 ]
Mentaschi, Lorenzo [4 ]
Clementi, Emanuela [1 ]
Coppini, Giovanni [1 ]
Mercogliano, Paola [1 ]
Mendicino, Giuseppe [2 ]
Pinardi, Nadia [4 ]
机构
[1] Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC, Lecce, Italy
[2] Univ Calabria, Dept Environm Engn, Arcavacata Di Rende, CS, Italy
[3] Dokuz Eylul Univ, Inst Marine Sci & Techonol, Izmir, Turkiye
[4] Univ Bologna, Dept Phys & Astron, Bologna, Italy
来源
FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE | 2024年 / 6卷
关键词
limited area climate modeling; physical downscaling; integrated modeling of local water cycle; Adriatic dilution basin; river release projection; river role on water stratification; river role on sea level rise; local dense water formation; GENERAL-CIRCULATION; MEDITERRANEAN SEA; LEVEL RISE; WATER; TRENDS; LAYER;
D O I
10.3389/fclim.2024.1368413
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The Adriatic Sea, characterized by unique local features in comparison to the broader Mediterranean Sea, stands out as a highly susceptible region to climate change. In this context, our study involves a focused climate downscaling approach, concentrating on the Adriatic water cycle. This encompasses integrated modeling at the mesoscale, covering the atmosphere, hydrology, and marine general circulation. The study period spans from 1992 to 2050, considering the high emission scenario RCP8.5. We aim at evaluating how the river release projection affects the local density stratification and the sea level rise. Indeed, the river release is found to decrease by approximately 35% in the mid-term future and condition the stratification of the water column with differences between the Northern and Southern sub-basins. The projected runoff decrease has a major impact on the Northern sub-basin, where the stratification is haline-dominated and the foreseen salinization prevails on the heating through the whole water column. Conversely, the runoff decrease has a lower impact on the Southern sub-basin, where the future changes of other mechanisms may play a major role, e.g., the changing properties of the Mediterranean water entering the Otranto Strait and the foreseen heating prevails on the salinization from the intermediate to deep water column. The study provides the first evidence of how the decreasing river discharge locally reduces the density stratification, increases the dense water, and mitigates the sea level rise in the Northern Adriatic Sea, thus acting in the opposite direction to the global warming. To minimize uncertainty in coastal ocean projections around the world, it is essential that the climate downscaling integrates high-resolution hydrology and hydrodynamics models to correctly reproduce the link between surface buoyancy and stratification and the resulting dynamics.
引用
收藏
页数:17
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Climate Change Impact on Buna River Delta in Adriatic Sea
    Niko, Pano
    Alfred, Frasheri
    Salvatore, Bushati
    Neki, Frasheri
    ENGINEERING GEOLOGY FOR SOCIETY AND TERRITORY, VOL 1: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 2015, : 391 - 394
  • [2] Projections of the Adriatic wave conditions under climate changes
    Moulin, Aimie
    Mentaschi, Lorenzo
    Clementi, Emanuela
    Verri, Giorgia
    Mercogliano, Paola
    FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE, 2024, 6
  • [3] Marine climate indicators in the Adriatic Sea
    da Costa, Vladimir Santos
    Alessandri, Jacopo
    Verri, Giorgia
    Mentaschi, Lorenzo
    Guerra, Roberta
    Pinardi, Nadia
    FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE, 2024, 6
  • [4] Delta growth and river valleys: the influence of climate and sea level changes on the South Adriatic shelf (Mediterranean Sea)
    Maselli, V.
    Trincardi, F.
    Asioli, A.
    Ceregato, A.
    Rizzetto, F.
    Taviani, M.
    QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2014, 99 : 146 - 163
  • [5] Impact of climate change on Adriatic Sea hydrology
    Frasheri, A
    Pano, N
    BUILDING THE EUROPEAN CAPACITY IN OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY, PROCEEDINGS, 2003, 69 : 92 - 96
  • [6] The Adriatic sea and impact on the climate of its coast
    Krebs, W
    PHYSIKALISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT, 1910, 11 : 311 - 312
  • [7] An Analysis of the Environmental Matrix in the Adriatic Sea - Past and Future Projections
    Rusu, Liliana
    JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY WATER AND ENVIRONMENT SYSTEMS-JSDEWES, 2024, 12 (02):
  • [8] Impact of the Climate Change on Adriatic Sea Hydrology
    Niko, Pano
    Alfred, Frasheri
    Bardhyl, Avdyli
    Fatos, Hoxhaj
    ENGINEERING GEOLOGY FOR SOCIETY AND TERRITORY, VOL 1: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 2015, : 381 - 384
  • [9] THE ROLE OF SUSPENDED MATTER IN THE BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES IN THE ADIGE RIVER ESTUARY (NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA)
    JURACIC, M
    VITTURI, LM
    RABITTI, S
    RAMPAZZO, G
    ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE, 1987, 24 (03) : 349 - 362
  • [10] SUSPENDED MATTER PROPERTIES AND ITS ROLE IN POLLUTANT TRANSFER FROM THE RIVER TO THE SEA - CASE-STUDY - ADIGE RIVER ADRIATIC SEA
    JURACIC, M
    VITTURI, LM
    RABITTI, S
    RAMPAZZO, G
    SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, 1986, 55 : 243 - 249