Causal analysis reveals that ecosystem structure and function are temperature-dominated but relatively independent

The understanding of the interplay between the environment, ecosystem structure, and function is crucial for effectively managing ecosystems in the face of climate change and environmental disturbances. Numerous observations and simulation experiments relying on correlation analysis have yielded the conclusion that environmental factors can directly or indirectly affect ecosystem community structure and function. However, the limitations of traditional ecological approaches lie in their inadequate control over confounding factors, thus hindering our comprehensive understanding of the true causal relationships. Our study aims to address these limitations and obtain a more accurate picture of causality about environment, ecosystem structure and function within a long-term time series data of an ecosystem. Here, utilizing a 31-year dataset of typical temperate grassland ecosystems, we developed an advanced causal discovery model and further enhanced it to effectively identify the causal network within the ecosystem, while also quantifying the intensity of causal pathways connecting the environment, ecosystem structure, and function. We found that the primary driver for changes in ecosystem structure and function was the temperature during the growing season, with soil water content being the secondary factor. However, there was only a weak causal relationship between ecosystem structure and gross primary productivity (GPP), which was mediated by eurytopic xerophyte plants. These findings challenge the conventional notion that precipitation is a key driver of changes in ecosystem carbon fluxes, highlighting the importance of plant-available water in regulating ecosystem structure and function. Our results suggest that the effects of global warming and severe droughts on plant growth and carbon sequestration capacity necessitate significant attention and further mitigation measures in arid and semi-arid regions.