Combined blood pressure and heart rate trajectories are associated with prognosis in critically ill patients with acute aortic dissection: A group-based multi-trajectory analysis

Background: Managing systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and heart rate (HR) is pivotal in acute aortic dissection (AAD) care. However, no prior studies have jointly analyzed the trajectories of these parameters. This research aimed to characterize their joint longitudinal trajectories and investigate the influence on AAD prognosis. Methods: We included AAD patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Using group-based multi-trajectory modeling (GBMTM), we identified combined trajectories of SBP, DBP, and HR within the initial 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Cox proportional hazard regression, log-binomial regression, and logistic regression were employed to assess the association between trajectory groups and mortality outcomes. Results: Data from 337 patients were analyzed. GBMTM identified five combined trajectory groups. Group 1 featured rapidly declining SBP and DBP with high pulse pressure and low HR; Group 2 showed high to moderate SBP with slight rebound and persistently low HR; Group 3 displayed persistently moderate BP and HR; Group 4 was characterized by moderate blood pressure with persistently high HR; and Group 5 had high to moderate SBP with slight rebound, high but gradually declining DBP, and slightly high HR. Group 3 demonstrated a lower risk of mortality, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.32 (95 % CI, 0.14 -0.74), and the adjusted relative risks for in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortalities were 0.37 (95 % CI, 0.15 -0.87), 0.25 (95 % CI, 0.10 -0.62), and 0.41 (95 % CI, 0.22 -0.79), respectively. The time-independent C-index curve demonstrated that the multi-trajectory groups had higher C-index values than any univariate trajectory groups or admission values of SBP, DBP, and HR. Conclusions: Utilization of GBMTM can yield data-driven insights to identify distinct subphenotypes in AAD patients. The combined trajectories of SBP, DBP, and HR within 24 h of ICU admission significantly influenced the mortality rate.