Unveiling the underlying drivers of Phanerozoic marine diversification

被引:0
|
作者
Wilson, Connor J. [1 ,3 ,4 ]
Reitan, Trond [1 ,2 ]
Liow, Lee Hsiang [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Oslo, Nat Hist Museum, N-0562 Oslo, Norway
[2] Univ Oslo, Ctr Planetary Habitabil, Dept Geosci, N-0562 Oslo, Norway
[3] Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY, England
[4] Univ Arizona, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA
关键词
origination; extinction; diversification; marine invertebrates; time series analysis; Granger causality; CAPTURE-MARK-RECAPTURE; PHENOTYPIC EVOLUTION; ORDOVICIAN; DIVERSITY; SELECTION; ECOLOGY; CLIMATE; MODELS; SCALES; RATES;
D O I
10.1098/rspb.2024.0165
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
In investigating global patterns of biodiversity through deep time, many large-scale drivers of diversification have been proposed, both biotic and abiotic. However, few robust conclusions about these hypothesized effectors or their roles have been drawn. Here, we use a linear stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework to test for the presence of underlying drivers of diversification patterns before examining specific hypothesized drivers. Using a global dataset of observations of skeletonized marine fossils, we infer origination, extinction and sampling rates (collectively called fossil time series) throughout the Phanerozoic using a capture-mark-recapture approach. Using linear SDEs, we then compare models including and excluding hidden (i.e. unmeasured) drivers of these fossil time series. We find evidence of large-scale underlying drivers of marine Phanerozoic diversification rates and present quantitative characterizations of these. We then test whether changing global temperature, sea-level, marine sediment area or continental fragmentation could act as drivers of the fossil time series. We show that it is unlikely any of these four abiotic factors are the hidden drivers we identified, though there is evidence for correlative links between sediment area and origination/extinction rates. Our characterization of the hidden drivers of Phanerozoic diversification and sampling will aid in the search for their ultimate identities.
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页数:10
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