An Update on the Independent Plastic Surgery Match (2019-2022): Trends, Predictors, and Program Leaders' Perspectives

Background: A previous study by the authors noted a decline in independent plastic surgery residency programs and rising applicant participation. This study provides updates on match trends and influential predictors, and gathers program leaders' views on the future of the independent track. Methods: Match data (2019-2022) were obtained from the San Francisco match after American Council of Educators in Plastic Surgery approval. Variables influencing match success were analyzed, and program leaders were surveyed about desirable applicant traits and program trajectories. Results: From 2019 to 2022, 243 of 428 applicants matched. Programs and positions declined by 10% and 9.5%, respectively. Applicants rose to 42.3%, but match rates fell from 82% to 56%. Osteopathic graduates doubled, whereas international graduates increased to 53.8%. Successful matches were associated with US allopathic medical school graduates, university-affiliated general surgery residencies, eight or more interviews, United States Medical Licensing Examination scores greater than 230, and high post graduate year (PGY)1-3 American Board of Surgery In-service Training Examination scores (PGY1-64.7%, PGY2-61.2%, PGY3-60.7%; P < 0.05). Of surveyed programs, 55.6% aimed to continue running the independent track in the next year. Conversely, 7.4% planned to discontinue in the next year, 22.2% within 2-5 years, 7.4% within the next decade, and 7.4% were unsure. Conclusions: Although support for the independent plastic surgery track remains, program participation diminishes as applicant interest increases, intensifying match challenges. Increasing number of interviews improves match potential. Program leaders display varied commitments, with looming plans for some programs to discontinue offering this track. Applicant evaluation pivots on strong recommendations, research, and test scores.