Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

被引：0
|
作者：
Hui Qiu [1 ,2 ]
Tianjun Zhou [1 ,2 ]
Liwei Zou [1 ]
Jie Jiang [1 ]
Xiaolong Chen [1 ]
Shuai Hu [1 ]
机构：
[1] State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
[2] University of the Chinese Academy of
来源：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2024年 / 17卷 / 05期
关键词：
青藏高原; 气候敏感度; 降水预估; 水资源可用性;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P467 [气候变化、历史气候]; TV213.4 [水利资源的管理、保护与改造];
学科分类号：
摘要：
青藏高原是气候变化敏感区,可靠的气候预估对气候变化应对至关重要.青藏高原夏季降水变化的预估结果在CMIP6气候模式间存在较大的不确定性,原因部分地和这些模式对温室气体强迫的敏感度不同有关.作者在对CMIP6模式性能进行评估基础上,选择了具有较高气候态降水模拟技巧的模式用于预估研究,并根据IPCC AR6估算的平衡态气候敏感度（ECS）的可能性范围,对青藏高原夏季降水的中远期（2050–2099）变化进行约束.结果表明,在SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5和SSP5–8.5情景下,青藏高原夏季降水将分别增多0.24, 0.25和0.45 mm d-1 （5.9%,6.1%,和11.2%）,水资源可用性（P–E）将分别增加0.10, 0.09和0.22 mm d-1 （5.7%, 4.9%和13.2%）.与约束预估相比,高ECS模式预估的水文敏感度约为约束后的1.2–1.4倍,升温幅度偏高0.6°C–1.2°C,这二者共同导致高ECS模式预估的高原降水增幅约为约束预估的1.7倍.本文指出气候敏感度是影响未来青藏高原水资源预估不确定性的重要来源,同时基于IPCC AR6对ECS的最佳估算,给出了高原夏季降水和水资源的最佳预估结果.
引用
收藏
页码：42 / 48
页数：7
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity
    Qiu, Hui
    Zhou, Tianjun
    Zou, Liwei
    Jiang, Jie
    Chen, Xiaolong
    Hu, Shuai
    ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2024, 17 (05)
  • [2] Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models
    Yin ZHAO
    Tianjun ZHOU
    Wenxia ZHANG
    Jian LI
    AdvancesinAtmosphericSciences, 2022, 39 (07) : 1133 - 1150
  • [3] Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models
    Yin Zhao
    Tianjun Zhou
    Wenxia Zhang
    Jian Li
    Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2022, 39 : 1133 - 1150
  • [4] Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models
    Zhao, Yin
    Zhou, Tianjun
    Zhang, Wenxia
    Li, Jian
    ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2022, 39 (07) : 1133 - 1150
  • [5] Understanding the Diversity of CMIP6 Models in the Projection of Precipitation Over Tibetan Plateau
    Qiu, Hui
    Zhou, Tianjun
    Chen, Xiaolong
    Wu, Bo
    Jiang, Jie
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2024, 51 (03)
  • [6] Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Simulations in CMIP6 Models Over the Tibetan Plateau
    Cui, Tong
    Li, Chao
    Tian, Fuqiang
    EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE, 2021, 8 (07)
  • [7] Increase in seasonal precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century projected using CMIP6 models
    Chen, Rong
    Duan, Keqin
    Shang, Wei
    Shi, Peihong
    Meng, Yali
    Zhang, Zhaopeng
    ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2022, 277
  • [8] Summer heat sources changes over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 models
    Xie, Zhiling
    Wang, Bin
    ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2021, 16 (06)
  • [9] Simulation of the dipole pattern of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by CMIP6 models
    Shang, Wei
    Duan, Keqin
    Li, Shuangshuang
    Ren, Xuejuan
    Huang, Bo
    ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2021, 16 (01)
  • [10] An assessment of temperature simulations by CMIP6 climate models over the Tibetan Plateau and differences with CMIP5 climate models
    Hu, Qin
    Hua, Wei
    Yang, Kaiqing
    Ming, Jing
    Ma, Pan
    Zhao, Yong
    Fan, Guangzhou
    THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2022, 148 (1-2) : 223 - 236
12345