Association between estimated glucose disposal rate and atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients undergoing radiofrequency catheter ablation: a retrospective study

Objective Previous studies have shown a clear link between insulin resistance (IR) and an elevated risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the relationship between the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), which serves as a marker for IR, and the risk of AF recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) remains uncertain. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the potential association between the eGDR and the risk of AF recurrence following RFCA. Methods This retrospective study was conducted at Nanchang University Affiliated Second Hospital. The study enrolled 899 patients with AF who underwent RFCA between January 2015 and January 2022. The formula used to calculate the eGDR was as follows: 19.02 - (0.22 * body mass index) - (3.26 * hypertension) - (0.61 * HbA1c). Cox proportional hazard regression models and exposure-effect curves were used to explore the correlation between the baseline eGDR and AF recurrence. The ability of the eGDR to predict AF recurrence was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results The study observed a median follow-up period of 11.63 months, during which 296 patients experienced AF recurrence. K-M analyses revealed that the cumulative incidence AF recurrence rate was significantly greater in the group with the lowest eGDR (log-rank p < 0.01). Participants with an eGDR >= 8 mg/kg/min had a lower risk of AF recurrence than those with an eGDR < 4 mg/kg/min, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.28 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18, 0.42]. Additionally, restricted cubic spline analyses demonstrated a linear association between the eGDR and AF recurrence (p nonlinear = 0.70). The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting AF recurrence using the eGDR was 0.75. Conclusions The study revealed that a decrease in the eGDR is associated with a greater AF recurrence risk after RFCA. Hence, the eGDR could be used as a novel biomarker for assessing AF recurrence risk.