Transforming cropland to forests in Pakistan, reducing net carbon footprints and contributing carbon credits

The cultivated land under gram (Cicer arietinum) crop fields and bare land of Khushab are transforming into Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forest land cover because of the rise in the groundwater table due to the construction of Greater Thal Canal. The research objective was to analyze land use and land cover (LULC) changes that have altered the vegetation paradigm of Khushab from 2000 to 2020, with future predictions for 2030. The study utilizes multi-temporal Landsat imageries, including Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8, spanning 20 years, obtained from the Google Earth Engine database. Five LULC classes: water body, urban, vegetation, bare land, and forest were used and the MOLUSE plugin in QGIS 10.18.24 version, and ANN-CA model for simulation were executed for the future prediction. There was a significant transformation of cropland into forest from 2000 to 2020. The overall classification accuracies of the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 76%, 86%, and 77%, respectively. A Kappa value of 0.93 indicates a high level of accuracy between the observed and predicted LULC maps for 2030. The future prediction indicates a significant increase in the Eucalyptus forest area expected around 14.02 km2 by 2030 claiming carbon credits. Human activities are driving the conversion of croplands, barren lands, and various other land categories into forest cover in Kushab. This LULC transformation into forests is driving a negative carbon footprint contributing carbon credits to a global green economy. This study recommends the Pakistani government to adopt policies that further enhance the LULC into low energy-intensive forest production, stimulate green agriculture.