Spatial and Temporal Changes in Supply and Demand for Ecosystem Services in Response to Urbanization: A Case Study in Vilnius, Lithuania

Intensification of urbanization is changing the supply capacities and demand levels of ecosystem services (ESs), and their mismatch has become a major problem for the sustainable development of urban areas. In this study, spatiotemporal changes of three ecosystem services (food provision, C sequestration, recreation) were quantified and imbalances between their supply and demand were identified in Vilnius County (Lithuania) in 2000-2020. The most significant land use transformation was the increase in forest and urbanized land at the expense of agricultural land. The lowest supply and the highest demand for food, carbon sequestration, and outdoor recreation were in the urban center. The urban land ratio had a negative impact on the provision of ecosystems' services during the study period, most notably affecting food supply. Urbanization indicators-population density and urban land area-showed a negative relationship with the provision of ecosystem services. The balance of supply and demand changed during the 2000-2020 period-the growth of suburbs led to the distance of the supply areas from the city, and the area of the intense demand increased. The results of the study highlight the importance of spatial scale in determining the impact of urbanization on ecosystem functions.