International Stability under Iterated Sanctions and Counter-sanctions

In this paper, some discrete mathematical models for dynamics of two antagonistic parties (opponents) under iterated sanctions and counter-sanctions are proposed. The modeling approach is inspired by the Osipov-Lanchester bilinear model for warfare. The criteria for model stability are derived both for the full information case and for the stochastic and nonlinear uncertainty case. The controlled version of the model described by bilinear difference equations is proposed, and a statement concerning controllability of the model by small controlling actions is formulated. The results are interpreted in terms of international stability preservation. The risks of global instability caused by further increase of sanctions intensity are formulated. A possible way of international stabilization control by small actions based on mutual trust of parties is proposed and discussed. Copyright (C) 2023 The Authors.