Regional Economic Development Indicators Analysis and Forecasting: Panel Data Evidence from Ukraine

The development of Ukraine’s economy as a socio-economic system is determined by the development of its constituent subsystems-regions that function successfully if there are resources necessary for development and their economic evaluation. In this regard, it is important to investigate, due to which factors this economic growth is achieved, what is the contribution of each of these factors to the overall economic success of the country or region. The analysis of the economic development of the regions highlighted the important factors of the regional economic growth: the gross regional product, turnover of retail trade; volume of sold industrial products; capital investments; export volumes. The panel data approach is used in the investigation for regional economic development of Ukraine modelling. Gross regional product as the main economic indicator in the level of region is a dependent variable, independent variables are gross regional product in two previous periods, export, capital investment in previous periods, turnover of retail trade and volume of sold industrial products with two lags. So, with econometric modeling methods the main determinants of the regional economic development of Ukraine were revealed and the level of impact for each of them was estimated. The value of the gross regional product in the regions of Ukraine for the next period is forecasted. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023.