FUTURE TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC-PROSPECTS FOR VLSI

The semiconductor technology has been progressing with a rate of 4 times per every 3 years, and the semiconductor industry has been expanding with the annual growth rate of around 14% in average. Recently, however, the situation seems to be somewhat changing. This paper investigates the trends in the past of VLSI technologies and performances of VLSI chips, of the R & D and equipment investments, and of the production and design costs. By extrapolating these trends, the future prospects for VLSIs are given in both the technology and the economics. According to these prospects, (1) 1 Gbit DRAMs and 50 M transistor system VLSIs would be realized before 2000, (2) investments for R & D and production equipments will steeply increase up to the unreasonable value, and (3) the delay in demand will become longer, which will make the return on investment difficult. As some of the key issues for overcoming these difficulties, the reduction in the investment and the cost, the alliance, and the market creation are discussed.